Vindhya Kumaran^1,2, Vadarevu V Ganesh^1,2, Jacqueline E King^1,2, Piyabut Kiatfuangfung^1,2, Zuo Xian Seah^1,2 and Maurice HT Ling^1,2,3*

¹School of Life Sciences, Management Development Institute of Singapore, Singapore
²School of Applied Sciences, Northumbria University, United Kingdom
³HOHY PTE LTD, Singapore

*Corresponding Author: Maurice HT Ling, School of Life Sciences, Management Development Institute of Singapore, Singapore.

Received: December 02, 2024; Published: January 16, 2025

Abstract

Modelling has been commonly used in studying substance abuse and recently, an extensive 11 compartment model with 40 different parameters of single substance abuse has been published. However, there is no sensitivity analysis performed to elucidate the relative importance of these parameters. In this study, we perform a one-factor-a-time (OFAT) sensitivity analysis by reducing each parameter to 10% its default value individually and simulated. Our results suggest that substances/drugs availability to be the most important factor, more crucial than the push from drug sellers and policing efforts. Reducing drug availability by 90% reduces the prevalence of drug users (including active users, users in treatment, and ex-users in remission) by 72.7%. Proportional reduction of contact between drug sellers and susceptible populations results in 30.5% reduction in prevalence while proportional reduction in policing efforts results in 10.6% increase in prevalence. This may have an impact on law enforcement and education efforts.

 Keywords: Substance Abuse; Modelling; Sensitivity Analysis

References

1. Lo TW., et al. “Substance Abuse and Public Health: A Multilevel Perspective and Multiple Responses”. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health7 (2020): 2610.
2. Tang AK., et al. “Clinical Characteristics of Cough Mixture Abusers Referred to Three Substance Abuse Clinics in Hong Kong: aA Retrospective Study”. East Asian Archives of Psychiatry4 (2012): 154-159.
3. Wazaify M., et al. “Doping in Gymnasiums in Amman: The Other Side of Prescription and Nonprescription Drug Abuse”. Substance Use and Misuse10 (2014): 1296-1302.
4. Perelló M., et al. “Changes in Prescription Drug Abuse During the COVID-19 Pandemic Evidenced in the Catalan Pharmacies”. Frontiers in Public Health 11 (2023): 1116337.
5. Cunliffe J., et al. “Nonmedical Prescription Psychiatric Drug Use and the Darknet: A Cryptomarket Analysis”. The International Journal on Drug Policy 73 (2019): 263-272.
6. Nath A., et al. “Substance Abuse Amongst Adolescents: An Issue of Public Health Significance”. Cureus11 (2022): e31193.
7. Mansoor K., et al. “Prevalence of Substance Abuse Among Trauma Patients in Rural West Virginia”. Cureus3 (2023): e36468.
8. Abate SM., et al. “Prevalence and Risk Factors of Psychoactive Substance Abuse Among Students in Ethiopia: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis”. Annals of Medicine and Surgery 70 (2021): 102790.
9. Chapagain K., et al. “Exploring the Prevalence and Correlates of Substance Abuse Amongst the Adolescents of Dharan, Eastern Nepal”. Journal of Nepal Health Research Council2 (2020): 263-267.
10. Subramaniam M., et al. “Prevalence of Consumption of Illicit Drugs and Associated Factors from a Nationwide Epidemiological Survey: The Singapore Health and Lifestyle Survey”. Annals of the Academy of Medicine, Singapore4 (2024): 222-232.
11. Bryson EO. “The Opioid Epidemic and the Current Prevalence of Substance Use Disorder in Anesthesiologists”. Current Opinion in Anaesthesiology3 (2018): 388-392.
12. Mackintosh DR and Stewart GT. “A Mathematical Model of a Heroin Epidemic: Implications for Control Policies”. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health4 (1979): 299-304.
13. Wang W., et al. “A Scoping Review of Drug Epidemic Models”. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health4 (2022): 2017.
14. Yap SS., et al. “Assembly of Single Substance Use Epidemiological Models”. Acta Scientific Medical Sciences1 (2024): 43-50.
15. Tang AY and Ling MH. “Relapse Processes are Important in Modelling Drug Epidemic”. Acta Scientific Medical Sciences6 (2022): 177-182.
16. Njagarah JBH and Nyabadza F. “Modelling the Role of Drug Barons on the Prevalence of Drug Epidemics”. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering3 (2013): 843-860.
17. Abou-Taleb KA., et al. “A Comparative Study Between One-Factor-At-A-Time and Minimum Runs Resolution-IV Methods for Enhancing the Production of Polysaccharide by Stenotrophomonas daejeonensis and Pseudomonas geniculate”. Annals of Agricultural Sciences2 (2018): 173-180.
18. Thabane L., et al. “A Tutorial on Sensitivity Analyses in Clinical Trials: The What, Why, When and How”. BMC Medical Research Methodology1 (2013): 92.
19. Hodson TO. “Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE) or Mean Absolute Error (MAE When to Use Them or Not”. Geoscientific Model Development14 (2022): 5481-5487.
20. Schneeweiss S. “Sensitivity Analysis and External Adjustment for Unmeasured Confounders in Epidemiologic Database Studies of Therapeutics”. Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety5 (2006): 291-303.
21. Feldman M., et al. “Personality, Drug Preference, Drug Use, and Drug Availability”. Journal of Drug Education1 (2011): 45-63.
22. Kendler KS., et al. “Cross-Generational Transmission of Genetic Risk for Alcohol and Drug Use Disorders: The Impact of Substance Availability on the Specificity of Genetic Risk”. Psychological Medicine11 (2023): 5109-5118.
23. Freisthler B., et al. “An Exploratory Study Examining the Spatial Dynamics of Illicit Drug Availability and Rates of Drug Use”. Journal of Drug Education1 (2005): 15-27.
24. Einstein S. “Drug Use Intervention Concepts: Availability”. The International Journal of the Addictions3 (1981): iii-iv.
25. Stout-Wiegand N and Trent RB. “Physician Drug Use: Availability or Occupational Stress?” The International Journal of the Addictions2 (1981): 317-330.
26. El-Khatib Z., et al. “The Role of Law Enforcement Officers/Police in Drug Prevention within Educational Settings-Study Protocol for the Development of a Guiding Document Based on Experts’ Opinions”. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health5 (2023): 2613.

Citation

Citation: Maurice HT Ling., et al. “Drug Availability is the Most Important Factor in Controlling Substance Abuse”.Acta Scientific Medical Sciences 9.2 (2025): 47-51.

Copyright

Copyright: © 2025 Maurice HT Ling., et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.