Acta Scientific Medical Sciences (ASMS)(ISSN: 2582-0931)

Research Article Volume 5 Issue 6

COVID-19 and Seasonal Flu Data Reliability Analysis of New Cases Reported in Croatia

Dragutin Novosel1*, Robert Žunac2 and Matija Alanović3

1Glaserbergstrasse 23, CH - 4056 Basel, Switzerland
2Petra Kružića 8, HR - 47000 Karlovac, Croatia
3SIPA elektronika d.o.o., Ruđera Boškovića 17, HR - 47000 Karlovac, Croatia

*Corresponding Author: Dragutin Novosel, Glaserbergstrasse 23, CH - 4056 Basel.

Received: April 19, 2021; Published: May 22, 2021

Abstract

Background: Recent reports have raised questions about the reliability of reported COVID-19 cases in Croatia. Analysis of the first-digit distribution in a dataset (Benford's law) is widely employed to review data consistency and is used to indicate data manipulation and/or data inconsistency.

Methods: The frequency distribution of the first digit of the number of newly reported COVID-19 cases in Croatia (2020/02/26 - 2020/12/14) was analyzed using Benford's law. Additionally, the last seven seasons (2013/09/30 - 2020/01/12) of reported cases of seasonal flu were analyzed.

Results: The number of newly reported cases of seasonal flu and newly reported cases of COVID- 19 in Croatia do follow a Benford distribution (P = 0.233). From July 18, 2020 until August 28, 2020 the number of newly reported COVID-19 cases did not follow a Benford distribution (P < 0.05).

Interpretation: Our findings strongly suggest that the COVID-19 and seasonal flu data reported in Croatia are reliable. Further analyses are required to explain the disturbance observed in the summer of 2020.

Keywords: COVID-19; Seasonal Flu; Benford's Law; Data Reliability

References

  1. Zhang J. “Testing case number of coronavirus disease 2019 in China with Newcomb-Benford Law” (2020).
  2. Campbell C and Gunia A. “China says it's beating coronavirus. But can we believe its numbers?” Time (2020).
  3. Sambridge M and Jackson A. “National COVID numbers—Benford’s law looks for errors”. Nature 581 (2020): 384.
  4. Idrovo A., et al. “Performance of public health surveillance systems during the influenza A(H1N1) pandemic in the Americas: testing a new method based on Benford's Law”. Epidemiology Infection12 (2011): 1827-1834.
  5. Novosel D and Alanovic M. “Analysis of Consistency of Prime-boost Covid-19 Baseline and Safety Data”. ACMS12 (2020): 81-82.
  6. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (2020).
  7. World Health Organization (2020).

Citation

Citation: Dragutin Novosel., et al. “COVID-19 and Seasonal Flu Data Reliability Analysis of New Cases Reported in Croatia”.Acta Scientific Medical Sciences 5.6 (2021): 102-105.

Copyright

Copyright: © 2021 Dragutin Novosel., et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.




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Impact Factor1.403

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