Acta Scientific Medical Sciences (ASMS)(ISSN: 2582-0931)

Research Article Volume 5 Issue 6

COVID-19 and Seasonal Flu Data Reliability Analysis of New Cases Reported in Croatia

Dragutin Novosel1*, Robert Žunac2 and Matija Alanović3

1Glaserbergstrasse 23, CH - 4056 Basel, Switzerland
2Petra Kružića 8, HR - 47000 Karlovac, Croatia
3SIPA elektronika d.o.o., Ruđera Boškovića 17, HR - 47000 Karlovac, Croatia

*Corresponding Author: Dragutin Novosel, Glaserbergstrasse 23, CH - 4056 Basel.

Received: April 19, 2021; Published: May 22, 2021

Abstract

Background: Recent reports have raised questions about the reliability of reported COVID-19 cases in Croatia. Analysis of the first-digit distribution in a dataset (Benford's law) is widely employed to review data consistency and is used to indicate data manipulation and/or data inconsistency.

Methods: The frequency distribution of the first digit of the number of newly reported COVID-19 cases in Croatia (2020/02/26 - 2020/12/14) was analyzed using Benford's law. Additionally, the last seven seasons (2013/09/30 - 2020/01/12) of reported cases of seasonal flu were analyzed.

Results: The number of newly reported cases of seasonal flu and newly reported cases of COVID- 19 in Croatia do follow a Benford distribution (P = 0.233). From July 18, 2020 until August 28, 2020 the number of newly reported COVID-19 cases did not follow a Benford distribution (P < 0.05).

Interpretation: Our findings strongly suggest that the COVID-19 and seasonal flu data reported in Croatia are reliable. Further analyses are required to explain the disturbance observed in the summer of 2020.

Keywords: COVID-19; Seasonal Flu; Benford's Law; Data Reliability

References

  1. Zhang J. “Testing case number of coronavirus disease 2019 in China with Newcomb-Benford Law” (2020).
  2. Campbell C and Gunia A. “China says it's beating coronavirus. But can we believe its numbers?” Time (2020).
  3. Sambridge M and Jackson A. “National COVID numbers—Benford’s law looks for errors”. Nature 581 (2020): 384.
  4. Idrovo A., et al. “Performance of public health surveillance systems during the influenza A(H1N1) pandemic in the Americas: testing a new method based on Benford's Law”. Epidemiology Infection12 (2011): 1827-1834.
  5. Novosel D and Alanovic M. “Analysis of Consistency of Prime-boost Covid-19 Baseline and Safety Data”. ACMS12 (2020): 81-82.
  6. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (2020).
  7. World Health Organization (2020).

Citation

Citation: Dragutin Novosel., et al. “COVID-19 and Seasonal Flu Data Reliability Analysis of New Cases Reported in Croatia”.Acta Scientific Medical Sciences 5.6 (2021): 102-105.

Copyright

Copyright: © 2021 Dragutin Novosel., et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.




Metrics

Acceptance rate30%
Acceptance to publication20-30 days
Impact Factor0.851

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