Assessment Method the Development of Agriculture in the Region
Ivanova Tatiana* and Ivanova Anna
Department of Research Center for Labor Economic, FSBEI HE "Russian University of Economics named after G.V. Plekhanov", Russian Federation
*Corresponding Author: Ivanova Tatiana, Department of Research Center for Labor Economic, FSBEI HE "Russian University of Economics named after G.V. Plekhanov", Russian Federation.
June 29, 2022; Published: December 22, 2022
The article developed a universal method for assessing the pace of agricultural development (on the example of the Chuvash Republic). Its algorithm includes the following actions: 1) index analysis of the main economic indicators related to the functioning of the region's agriculture for 2011-2020; 2) development of a formula for calculating an integral indicator characterizing their changes; 3) determining the pace of development of the industry. Next, the forecast for three scenarios (optimistic, probabilistic and pessimistic) for 2021–2023 is presented, and for the optimistic one, confidence intervals of the predicted values of the integral indicator characterizing the pace of agricultural development are calculated. This technique mathematically supports and economically substantiates the effectiveness of managerial decision-making related to the development of strategies, projects and programs for the development of agriculture in the Chuvash Republic.
Keywords: Chuvash Republic; Agriculture, Forecasting; Assessment Method; Integral Indicator; Development
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