Acta Scientific Agriculture (ASAG)(ISSN: 2581-365X)

Review Article Volume 4 Issue 9

An Application of Markov Chain Model to Study on Trade Direction of Export of FCV Tobacco from India

Yogesh HC1* and SK Srivastava2*

1Agricultural Economics from GBPUA&T, IARI, New Delhi, India
2Professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics GBPUA&T, India

*Corresponding Author: Yogesh HC, Agricultural Economics from GBPUA&T, IARI, New Delhi, India.

Received: July 14, 2020; Published: August 28, 2020



Tobacco is one of the important commercial crops of India and also called as “golden leaf”. It provides employment directly and indirectly to 38 millions of people. Indian tobacco is exported to over 119 countries across the globe. During 2015-16, India’s unmanufactured tobacco (FCV and non-FCV) exports accounted for about 86 per cent of total exports of tobacco and tobacco products in terms of quantity and 71 per cent in terms of value in rupees. Out of the total Indian unmanufactured tobacco exports, FCV tobacco exports constituted 72 per cent in terms of quantity and 81% in terms of value. FCV tobacco exports were in the order of 1,51,670 Metric tons valued ₹ 3,495.81 crores ($ 531.48 million) against 1,49,700 Metric tons valued at ₹ 3,201.71 crores ($ 486.73 million) during the same period last year showing an increase of 1 per cent and 9 per cent in terms of quantity and value, respectively. Therefore, the present study has been conducted with reference to FCV tobacco; to examine the pattern of export destination of FCV (Flue-cured virginia) tobacco. To achieve this, annual export data on region-wise for the period 2010-11 to 2015-16 has been used and analysed by using the first order Markov chain approach. The study reveals that West Europe followed by Africa and North and South America are the best and loyal importer of unmanufactured tobacco from India. Also, it is suggested that India should not only depend on these trade partners only but also diversify its exports to other regions too.

Keywords: Markov Chain Analysis; FCV Tobacco; Trade Direction; Destinational Change; Tobacco Board



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Citation: Yogesh HC and SK Srivastava. “An Application of Markov Chain Model to Study on Trade Direction of Export of FCV Tobacco from India". Acta Scientific Agriculture 4.9 (2020): 73-77.


Acceptance rate32%
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