Acta Scientific Paediatrics (ISSN: 2581-883X)

Research Article Volume 4 Issue 2

On the Effect of Meteorological Parameters on the Spread of COVID-19 with Count Methodologies

Oyamakin S Oluwafemi1, Bobadoye Dotun2* and Alabi Y Ifeoluwa3

1Biostatistics Unit, Department of Statistics, University of Ibadan, Nigeria
2Forestry Research Institute of Nigeria, Nigeria
3Global Emerging Pathogens Treatment Consortium (GET), Nigeria

*Corresponding Author: Oyamakin S Oluwafemi, Biostatistics Unit, Department of Statistics, University of Ibadan, Nigeria.

Received: October 03, 2020; Published: January 22, 2021

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Abstract

There are confusion as to whether cold/hot weather can kill the new coronavirus (COVID-19) since most infectious disease have some form of seasonality and/or seasons at which they progress. The normal human body temperature remains around 36.5°C to 37°C, regardless of the external temperature or weather. This paper considered the relationship between the weather parameters and the spread of COVID-19 since many of the largest outbreaks have been in regions where the weather is cooler, leading to speculation that the disease might begin to tail off with the arrival of summer. Many experts, however, have already cautioned against banking too much on the virus dying down over the summer. The results based on the active and closed cases of COVID-19 showed that infected patients in mild condition and serious/critical condition under the active cases as at today 1st of April 2020 were 95% and 5%, respectively while 81% (Recovered/discharged) and 19% (Deaths) were observed under the closed cases which was 229,344 in total as at 1st of April 2020. Also, the correlation coefficients showed that no relationship existed between the meteorological variables and the confirmed cases counts due to COVID-19. Count methodologies used showed significance of the weather parameters but gave a poor fit which is an indication of data needs as covariates to the already documented records of persons diagnosed to be COVID-19 positive.

Keywords: COVID-19; Meteorological Parameters; Poisson Model; Negative Binomial Model; Correlation Coefficients

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Citation

Citation: Oyamakin S Oluwafemi., et al. “On the Effect of Meteorological Parameters on the Spread of COVID-19 with Count Methodologies”. Acta Scientific Paediatrics 4.2 (2021): 29-36.




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Acceptance rate33%
Acceptance to publication20-30 days
Impact Factor0.695

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