Ricardo Osés Rodríguez¹, Rigoberto Fimia Duarte^2,3*, Claudia Osés Llanes⁴, María Patricia Zambrano Gavilanes⁵, Thaináh Bruna Santos Zambrano⁶ and Alfredo González Meneses⁷

¹Provincial Meteorological Center of Villa Clara, Cuba

²Faculty of Health Technology and Nursing, University of Medical Sciences of Villa Clara (UMC-VC), Cuba

³Veterinary Medicine and Zootechnic Career, Faculty of Agrocultural Sciences, Central University “Marta Abreu” of Las Villas, Villa Clara, Cuba

⁴Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, XX Anniversary Policlinical, Santa Clara, Villa Clara, Cuba

⁵Veterinary Medicine Career, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine and Zootechnic, Technical University of Manabí, Manabí, Ecuador

⁶Pathology Department, St. Gregory's University of Portoviejo, Portoviejo, Ecuador and Postgraduate Department in Biomedicine, Italian University Institute of Rosario (IUNIR), Argentine

⁷Construction Enterprise of the Electric Industry of Villa Clara, Cuba

*Corresponding Author: Rigoberto Fimia Duarte, Hygiene and Epidemiology Career, Faculty of Health Technology and Nursing, University of Medical Sciences of Villa Clara (UMC-VC), Cuba.

Received: May 10, 2021; Published: June 23, 2021

Abstract

In this work, new cases and daily deaths of the COVID-19 pandemic affecting Cuba so far in the year 2021 were modeled. Mathematical models were obtained by means of the methodology of Regressive Objective Regression (ROR), which explains their behavior, depending on 105 days in advance, a parameter which is related to a delay of 4 months. A long-term prognosis was performed, which allows taking measures in clinical services to reduce deaths and complications in patients with COVID-19. It is concluded that COVID-19, despite being a new disease in the world, can be predicted 105 days in advance by means of ROR mathematical modeling, which allows reducing the number of deceased, severe, and critical patients for better management of the pandemic. The tendency of the disease is on the rise, so the management, monitoring, and control of the disease should continue to be taken to the extreme, as established in the medical protocols. An accumulated number of 1000 deaths could be reached by August 19, 2021, and 500 deaths by April 15, 2021, according to the models run.

Keywords: Cuba; COVID-19; New Cases; Deaths; Long Term Prognosis; Regressive Objective Regression

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Citation

Citation: Rigoberto Fimia Duarte. “Forecast of New and Deceased Cases of COVID-19 in Cuba with an Advance of 105 Days". Acta Scientific Veterinary Sciences 3.7 (2021): 31-36.

Copyright

Copyright: © 2021 Rigoberto Fimia Duarte. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.