Study of Statistical Analysis of Indices Based Rainfall Trends in Haridwar District of Uttarakhand, India

Avadhesh Kumar Koshal¹* and Anamika Jain²

¹Professor and Head, Faculty of Science, Motherhood University, Roorkee, India
²Research Scholar, Faculty of Science, Motherhood University, Roorkee, India

*Corresponding Author: Avadhesh Kumar Koshal, Professor and Head, Faculty of Science, Motherhood University, Roorkee, India.

Received: April 22, 2021; Published: May 06, 2021

Citation: Avadhesh Kumar Koshal and Anamika Jain. “Study of Statistical Analysis of Indices Based Rainfall Trends in Haridwar District of Uttarakhand, India”. Acta Scientific Agriculture 5.6 (2021): 02-10.

Abstract

  The Haridwar belong to Western Himalayan Region with geographical coordinates are 29.948 deg latitude, 78.160 deg longitude. The trend analysis of rainfall pattern in Haridwar is studied through time series analysis of rainfall for a long period of 20 years. The Kharif crops production is dependent on this rainfall. The average annual rainfall of region during 1999-2018 is 1051mm. and south west monsoon rainfall 925.9 mm observed.. The annual rainfall in year 2007 showing the highest positive rainfall anomaly (2.31) while the other years show rainfall below normal with 2009 Showing the lowest negative rainfall deviation (-2.03). and the South west (1999 to 2018) rainfall of Haridwar District in year 2018 showing the highest positive rainfall anomaly (2.15) while the other years show rainfall below normal with 2009 Showing the lowest negative rainfall deviation (-2.05). The R² value -1.408 means that only -140.8 percent variations is observed in twenty years. The maximum South west rainfall recoded 1564 mm in year 2008 and lowest rainfall recoded 439 mm in year 2001. The annual rainfall highest SIAP value 2.31 is observed in year 2007 whereas highest negative value -2.03 is observed in year 2009. The South-west rainfall highest SIAP value 2.15 observed in year 2018 whereas lowest SIAP value -2.05 observed in year 2009. On the basis, the future forecast of rainfall for a period of ten years from 2019 to 2030 has been observed a negative trend for the coming years. In future, expected annual rainfall may be more in year 2030 observed 1024.9 mm in the district.

  In future, expected annual rainfall may be less in year 2030 observed 1025 mm in the District. The south west rainfall in the year 2030; expected rainfall may be 922.8 mm. The trends are showing increasing trend pattern from year 2019 to 2030. The trend analysis gives the scenario of current to expected future situation. Water is a vital component for agricultural crops and in abnormal period crops are irrigated by available source viz. tube well, submersible, canal, irrigation channels and other sources. The statistical analysis of annual and south west rainfall of the study area will help to better water management.

  Today rainfall is not regular fashion so farmers are not more dependent much more on rainfall. The source of irrigation, mechanization and knowledge of current situation of weather and climate change related pattern and adaptation of technology is maintain to crops yield trend.

Keywords: Anomaly; Annual Rainfall; Indices; South - West Rainfall; SIAP

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Copyright: © 2021 Avadhesh Kumar Koshal and Anamika Jain. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.